Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6D 0x6d82…bb8b other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 191d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-27%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$34
tech 24% −$28
crypto 18% +$8
sports 4% +$21
world 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +59.9% +44.7% 67% 67% +31.7%
≤30d 6 +59.9% +44.7% 67% 67% +31.7%
≤90d 6 +59.9% +44.7% 67% 67% +31.7%
all 11 -9.7% -18.3% 36% 36% -34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 36% -34.7%
10% -26.1% 36% -40.9%
15% -33.2% 27% -46.6%
20% -39.8% 27% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage191d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 +$21 +414%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 20? Jan 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 20 $12 −$8 -67%
Will Wuthering Waves win Best Mobile Game at the 2025 Game Awards? Jan 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? Jan 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records