Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:01:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d82…7d33 crypto 633 markets active 1h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 297d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,270 (+2%) realized +$3,851 · open +$2,419
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate64%395W / 222L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$607per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$13,587now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$208
14 days+$458
30 days−$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$8,476
crypto 36% −$653
other 16% +$674
politics 4% +$565
sports 3% −$923
finance 2% +$1,134
tech 1% −$292
economics 1% +$164
culture 0% −$56
weather 0% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.5% -8.1% 83% 33% -4.4%
≤30d 28 +27.4% +15.3% 75% 43% -10.9%
≤90d 234 -54.6% -58.9% 29% 18% -26.6%
all 617 -5.2% -14.2% 64% 37% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 37% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 24% -16.6%
15% -29.9% 17% -24.7%
20% -36.8% 14% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$238 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$13,587
Realized+$3,851
Unrealized+$2,419
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses395 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions16
Markets (closed)617 / 633
History coverage297d ⚠
Avg bet$607
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 617 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 67¢ 94¢ $6,222 $8,830 +$2,608 (+42%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $3,057 $3,168 +$111 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $150 $213 +$63 (+42%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $200 $182 −$18 (-9%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $164 $163 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $148 $147 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $136 $135 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $116 $115 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $112 $111 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $91 $90 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $51 $64 +$12 (+25%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 14¢ $300 $53 −$247 (-82%)
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Yes 65¢ 12¢ $130 $24 −$106 (-82%)
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 27¢ 36¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 20 $244 +$76 +31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $847 +$493 +58%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $991 +$9 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $471 −$470 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $1,102 +$98 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $741 +$59 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,456 +$57 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $685 +$5 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $270 +$130 +48%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 04 $3,274 +$964 +30%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,841 −$1,856 -65%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $60 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1,769 +$308 +17%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 31 $624 −$54 -9%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? May 29 $3,416 −$690 -20%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 28 $49 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? May 28 $320 −$20 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $6,119 −$160 -3%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 28 $502 +$80 +16%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 28 $333 +$30 +9%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? May 28 $3,279 +$1,102 +34%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 27 $1,456 +$335 +23%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 27 $1,109 −$1,008 -91%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $101 +$29 +29%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 22 $172 +$37 +21%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $9 +$3 +30%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 20 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $774 −$774 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $545 −$100 -18%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 14 $1,196 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? May 12 $800 +$95 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $448 +$83 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $3,751 +$137 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $2,695 −$1,395 -52%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 06 $3,250 +$220 +7%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? May 04 $61 +$17 +28%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, May 04 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 04 $365 +$135 +37%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? May 03 $2,175 +$571 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 03 $63 +$2 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 01 $581 +$224 +38%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $4,533 +$967 +21%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $11,506 +$2,204 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 30 $1,123 +$389 +35%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Apr 30 $83 −$35 -42%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $185 +$12 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Trump say "Cat" during healthcare event? Apr 23 $92 −$92 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 80¢ $320 40m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $165 49m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $151 50m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $113 51m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 55m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 56m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $131 58m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $137 58m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $150 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $450 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $590 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $276 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $284 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $29 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 86¢ $591 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 86¢ $221 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $471 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 61¢ $244 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 99¢ $991 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY No 88¢ $10 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY No 89¢ $154 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY No 88¢ $13 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $667 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $52 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $206 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY No 93¢ $683 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY No 92¢ $58 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? BUY No 95¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,587.32 · official $13,587.34 (match) · 3500 history records