Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:12:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6D 0x6d82…9e66 weather 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$283 (+16%) realized +$227 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$655now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$225
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -12.3% -20.6% 58% 42% +9.5%
≤30d 12 -12.3% -20.6% 58% 42% +9.5%
≤90d 12 -12.3% -20.6% 58% 42% +9.5%
all 12 -12.3% -20.6% 58% 42% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 42% +9.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 33% -1.0%
15% -35.2% 33% -10.6%
20% -41.5% 25% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$20 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$655
Realized+$227
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)12 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $252 $280 +$28 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? No 84¢ 100¢ $111 $131 +$21 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $86 $114 +$28 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $81 $93 +$12 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19? No 91¢ 100¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 19? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $66 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? Jun 18 $182 +$96 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? Jun 18 $37 −$24 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $110 +$45 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $137 +$85 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$8 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $103 +$11 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? Jun 17 $78 −$63 -81%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $156 +$19 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 19m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 88¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 85¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $54 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 91¢ $65 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 91¢ $66 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 78¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 52¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 48¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $60 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? BUY Yes 92¢ $242 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $654.68 · official $654.68 (match) · 85 history records