Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:34:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6D 0x6d85…f21d crypto 34 markets active 6d ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%22W / 11L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$804per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$13
crypto 36% −$7
economics 10% −$3
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 33 -2.9% -12.2% 67% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,400) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage179d
Avg bet$804
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 25? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? May 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? May 06 $68 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 8? May 06 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 9? Mar 27 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 05 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 05 $3,466 −$3 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 05 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 23? Mar 05 $46 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 9? Feb 20 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 09 $4,350 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 29? Jan 29 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 20 $4,360 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $66 $0 +0%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 15 $3,450 −$3 -0%
Will Hamburger SV win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Jan 15 $3,456 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 5? Jan 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 26? Dec 28 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 24? Dec 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 21? Dec 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 18? Dec 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 15? Dec 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 16? Dec 17 $50 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 14 $1,413 −$1 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 13 $1,400 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Dec 13 $1,420 −$1 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 13 $1,420 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $36 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $103 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $113 69d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $68 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $50 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $70 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 103d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 113d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 9? BUY No 100¢ $28 127d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 136d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $28 136d
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $25 136d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 29? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 138d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $4,319 147d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $4,350 147d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $4,356 147d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $4,360 147d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $66 148d
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $3,447 152d
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $3,450 152d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $3,435 152d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $3,438 152d
Will Hamburger SV win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? SELL No 100¢ $3,453 152d
Will Hamburger SV win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? BUY No 100¢ $3,456 152d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 162d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.01 · official $25.01 (match) · 209 history records