Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:33:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d88…3faf crypto 319 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (213 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$216 (+5%) realized +$216 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate67%213W / 106L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day213.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$147
other 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (213 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 319 +7.2% -3.0% 67% 46% -11.7%
≤30d 319 +7.2% -3.0% 67% 46% -11.7%
≤90d 319 +7.2% -3.0% 67% 46% -11.7%
all 319 +7.2% -3.0% 67% 46% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover213.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 46% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -12.3% 34% -20.1%
15% -20.7% 22% -27.8%
20% -28.5% 16% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 37% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$216
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses213 / 106
Open positions0
Markets (closed)319 / 319
History coverage5d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day213.2
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 319 Trades
no open positions (63 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$37 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $19 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$25 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $7 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1268 history records