Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:14:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6D 0x6d89…9ef7 sports 813 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$552 (-0%) realized −$552 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate92%779W / 72L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$615per market
Trades / day44.5pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 61d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$5,250
other 40% +$647
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 193 -22.0% -29.4% 78% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 532 -8.4% -17.2% 90% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 851 -5.6% -14.6% 92% 1% -10.5%
all 851 -5.6% -14.6% 92% 1% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 1% -10.5%
10% -22.8% 0% -19.0%
15% ← realistic here -30.2% 0% -26.8%
20% -37.1% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$707) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$109 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$552
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses779 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions2
Markets (closed)851 / 813
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$615
Trades / day44.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 851 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF San Gregorio: Beatrise Zeltina vs Ylenia Zocco Beatrise Zeltina 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Ystad: Olga Golas vs Thea Frodin Thea Frodin 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rotterdam Open, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Roberto Carballe Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Paris Basketball vs. Boulazac Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dallas Open: Tommy Paul vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Linda Noskova vs Varvara Gracheva Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Open Sud de France: Hubert Hurkacz vs Martin Damm Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dallas Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Titans vs. Cardinals Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Bills vs. Bears Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Sara Bejlek vs Clara Tauson Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina Open: Joao Fonseca vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Men's Group B - Slovakia vs. Finland Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Elise Mertens Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Ann Li vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucks vs. Thunder Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Pacers vs. Knicks Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Commanders vs. Chargers Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Ravens vs. Bills Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Rotterdam Open, Qualification: Kimmer Coppejans vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Maria Sakkari vs Karolina Muchova Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Kings Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Broncos vs. Eagles Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Argentina Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Francisco Comesana Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Jilin Northeast Tigers vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dallas Open: Marin Cilic vs Learner Tien Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Patriots vs. Bills Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Christopher O'Connell vs Cameron Norrie Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Valentin Royer vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Solana Sierra vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Maria Sakkari vs Jasmine Paolini Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dallas Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Eliot Spizzirri Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Packers vs. Browns Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -103%
Chargers vs. Giants Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Open Sud de France: Ugo Humbert vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Emma Navarro vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucks vs. Magic Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF San Gregorio: Beatrice Ricci vs Ingrid Vojcinakova Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Diana Marcinkevica Jun 17 $64 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $144 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $250 +$1 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $68 +$1 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 17 $17 $0 +1%
Ali Olwan: 1+ goals Jun 17 $120 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Ystad: Olga Golas vs Thea Frodin BUY Thea Frodin 100¢ $14 36m
ITF San Gregorio: Beatrise Zeltina vs Ylenia Zocco BUY Beatrise Zeltina 100¢ $78 38m
ITF San Gregorio: Beatrice Ricci vs Ingrid Vojcinakova BUY Beatrice Ricci 100¢ $28 50m
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Diana Marcinkevica BUY Viola Turini 100¢ $64 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $88 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $2 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $12 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $11 3h
Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $60 3h
Romano Schmid: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $58 3h
Odeh Fakhoury: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $30 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $8 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 100¢ $8 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 100¢ $25 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $646 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $405 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $553 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $3 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $9 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $28 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $40 4h
Ali Olwan: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $17 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $48 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $3 4h
Ali Olwan: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $114 4h
Ali Olwan: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $6 4h
Romano Schmid: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $70 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $114 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.85 · official $91.85 (match) · 3500 history records