Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:36:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6D 0x6d8b…e8d7 sports 392 markets active 5d ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$157 (-10%) realized −$162 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%194W / 197L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$226
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$167
crypto 6% $0
other 3% +$1
world 0% −$7
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -18.4% -26.1% 54% 39% -27.2%
≤30d 379 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 45% -20.7%
≤90d 391 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 45% -20.3%
all 391 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 45% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 45% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 38% -27.9%
15% -32.3% 31% -34.9%
20% -38.9% 26% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses194 / 197
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)391 / 392
History coverage26d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 391 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 27¢ 54¢ $5 $11 +$5 (+98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +166%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +140%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $3 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $9 +$4 +40%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Mayar Sherif Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $3 $0 -7%
Set 1 Winner: Leroux vs Rossi Jun 11 $5 +$3 +65%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Anton Arzhankin vs Stefano D'agostino Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $3 +$3 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
ITF Brasilia: Pedro Rodrigues vs Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto Jun 10 $3 +$2 +67%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Cattolica: Alexander Vasilev vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 10 $5 +$2 +34%
ITF Brasilia: Ryan Augusto Dos Santos vs Joao Victor Couto Loureiro Jun 10 $5 +$3 +65%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $10 +$1 +10%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $5 −$1 -16%
Set Handicap: Finetto (-1.5) vs Pena (+1.5) Jun 10 $5 +$2 +48%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 10 $10 −$9 -84%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group S BUY No 27¢ $2 4d
Will Belgium be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group S BUY No 27¢ $4 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 36¢ $3 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 36¢ $1 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 36¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 6d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 64¢ $3 6d
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 78¢ $3 6d
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 73¢ $3 6d
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan BUY Marco Trungelliti 62¢ $3 6d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 75¢ $3 6d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech SELL Adrian Mannarino 46¢ $3 6d
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato BUY Marco Cecchinato 73¢ $3 6d
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato BUY Marco Cecchinato 72¢ $3 6d
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato BUY Marco Cecchinato 68¢ $3 6d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech BUY Adrian Mannarino 48¢ $3 6d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Anton Arzhankin vs Stefano D'agostino BUY Anton Arzhankin 66¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.70 · official $11.30 (match) · 807 history records