Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d8c…2a13 sports 228 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%28W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$5
other 21% −$4
politics 19% −$3
crypto 9% −$4
economics 6% $0
world 6% −$1
tech 4% −$1
culture 4% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 228 -0.6% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses28 / 200
Open positions0
Markets (closed)228 / 228
History coverage174d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 228 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 22 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 26 $60 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 25 $40 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 25 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $65 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 24 $84 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 24 $32 $0 -2%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $132 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 22 $72 −$2 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 22 $223 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 21 $244 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $249 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 21 $69 $0 +0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $78 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $118 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $91 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 16 $61 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 15 $36 $0 +1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 15 $73 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 13 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 12 $76 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 11 $85 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 10 $37 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 09 $78 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 08 $42 $0 +1%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 07 $76 −$2 -3%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Mar 06 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $37 2h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $38 10h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $38 13d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $38 13d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $28 25d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $28 25d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 91¢ $30 38d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $30 38d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? SELL No 96¢ $28 88d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $28 88d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? SELL No 97¢ $32 88d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? BUY No 96¢ $32 89d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 89d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 89d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $35 89d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $35 89d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $32 89d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $32 89d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $27 89d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $27 90d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $36 90d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $36 90d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $32 90d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $32 90d
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $29 90d
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $29 91d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $33 91d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $34 91d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? SELL No 97¢ $33 91d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? BUY No 97¢ $33 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 810 history records