Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d8c…99f6 crypto 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$932 (-2%) realized +$100 · open −$1,032
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%52W / 77L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$224est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$23,917now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$922
7 days+$4,052
14 days+$3,129
30 days+$2,944
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$766
sports 29% +$1,880
world 22% −$737
crypto 9% −$1,892
tech 1% +$152
culture 1% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +5.3% -4.7% 57% 54% +15.5%
≤30d 69 -8.9% -17.5% 49% 45% +2.8%
≤90d 129 -25.0% -32.1% 40% 36% -10.0%
all 129 -25.0% -32.1% 40% 36% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 36% -10.0%
10% -38.6% 33% -18.7%
15% -44.5% 27% -26.5%
20% -50.0% 23% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -45% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$209 vs −$146 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$23,917
Realized+$100
Unrealized−$1,032
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses52 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$224
Open positions26
Markets (closed)129 / 155
History coverage62d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $6,100 $6,094 −$6 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $3,800 $3,764 −$36 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $3,100 $3,102 +$2 (+0%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 93¢ 92¢ $2,000 $1,998 −$2 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $2,000 $1,995 −$5 (-0%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 79¢ 78¢ $1,400 $1,376 −$24 (-2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $1,100 $1,156 +$56 (+5%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,000 $999 −$1 (-0%)
US x China Military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $800 $805 +$5 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $600 $597 −$3 (-1%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 21¢ 10¢ $1,040 $460 −$580 (-56%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 73¢ 64¢ $450 $398 −$52 (-12%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 28¢ $500 $293 −$207 (-41%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $100 $137 +$37 (+37%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 56¢ 28¢ $200 $98 −$102 (-51%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 75¢ 95¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+26%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 86¢ 96¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+11%)
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026? Yes $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 31¢ $100 $27 −$73 (-73%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 19¢ $50 $10 −$40 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $202 +$92 +46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $911 +$614 +67%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $684 −$673 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $806 +$275 +34%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $606 −$600 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $406 −$400 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,015 +$1,026 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$98 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $505 −$500 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $405 −$400 -99%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 +$486 +238%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$94 +92%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $101 +$24 +24%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 +$116 +114%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $711 +$803 +113%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $304 +$58 +19%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $403 +$117 +29%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $404 +$134 +33%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $506 +$301 +60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $869 +$2,462 +283%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,422 +$1,056 +44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $410 −$400 -98%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,000 +$20 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 13 $1,200 −$15 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 13 $1,145 +$55 +5%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $773 −$764 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $205 −$200 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $204 +$337 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 03 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 03 $52 +$60 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 03 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 02 $405 −$400 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 02 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 02 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$10 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 45m
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 68¢ $202 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $3,103 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 86¢ $4,000 11h
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $2,000 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $1,000 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2,000 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $911 11h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $684 12h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $305 25h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 74¢ $202 43h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 43h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $606 47h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 74¢ $605 47h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $31 47h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $406 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $2,609 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $1,204 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $1,015 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $505 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $405 3d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 72¢ $50 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,916.54 · official $23,916.65 (match) · 275 history records