Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d90…bb3d weather 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate83%54W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$33
14 days−$88
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% −$128
world 5% −$5
finance 2% +$27
other 1% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 45 +0.0% -9.5% 93% 7% -10.5%
≤90d 59 -0.7% -10.2% 83% 12% -12.0%
all 65 +2.0% -7.8% 83% 17% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 17% -10.1%
10% -16.6% 11% -18.7%
15% -24.6% 9% -26.6%
20% -32.0% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$36 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses54 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage139d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? No 92¢ 98¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? No 93¢ 94¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 −$98 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $55 +$8 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $236 +$17 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $151 −$93 -62%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 08 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 5? Jun 06 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? Jun 06 $100 +$11 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 05 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 05 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? Jun 05 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? Jun 04 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 3? Jun 04 $101 +$16 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 2? Jun 03 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 2? Jun 03 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 29? May 31 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 29? May 31 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 29? May 31 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 27? May 28 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27? May 28 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27? May 28 $136 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on May 26? May 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? May 27 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 26? May 27 $125 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 25? May 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? May 25 $152 −$69 -46%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 22? May 23 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 21? May 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21? May 22 $70 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 21? May 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 21? May 21 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 20? May 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 20? May 21 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 17? May 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 16? May 17 $110 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 15? May 16 $100 +$8 +8%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $60 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 25? Mar 25 $10 +$4 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $100 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $45 27h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $100 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 27h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $100 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $100 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $100 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $100 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? SELL No 2¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? BUY No 95¢ $100 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? BUY No 87¢ $55 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? SELL No 35¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? SELL No 34¢ $47 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? BUY No 92¢ $35 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? BUY No 80¢ $50 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? BUY No 93¢ $201 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? BUY No 91¢ $100 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $100 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 12d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? BUY No 90¢ $100 13d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 5? BUY No 94¢ $100 13d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 13d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? BUY No 92¢ $100 14d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? BUY No 93¢ $100 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.56 · official $203.87 · 151 history records