Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

6D 0x6d93…e312 world 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized −$5 · open +$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$406per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$462now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+0.2%	-9.3%	50%	0%	-9.3%
≤30d	4	+0.2%	-9.3%	50%	0%	-9.3%
≤90d	4	+0.2%	-9.3%	50%	0%	-9.3%
all	4	+0.2%	-9.3%	50%	0%	-9.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.3%	0%	-9.3%
10%	-18.0%	0%	-18.0%
15%	-25.9%	0%	-25.9%
20%	-33.2%	0%	-33.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$462

Realized−$5

Unrealized+$10

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$406

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?	No	94¢	96¢	$452	$462	+$10 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	Jun 18	$451	$0	+0%
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?	Jun 17	$386	+$3	+1%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?	Jun 17	$288	$0	+0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?	Jun 17	$453	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?	BUY No	94¢	$452	1h
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	SELL No	92¢	$442	1h
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	SELL No	92¢	$9	1h
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	BUY No	92¢	$451	2h
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?	SELL No	92¢	$389	19h
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?	BUY No	91¢	$386	21h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?	SELL No	90¢	$288	21h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?	BUY No	90¢	$288	22h
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?	SELL No	94¢	$453	22h
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	94¢	$453	23h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $462.00 · official $462.00 (match) · 10 history records