Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:15:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d93…3741 other 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$457 (-2%) realized −$500 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate51%54W / 51L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,962now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$119
14 days−$113
30 days−$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$158
crypto 16% +$4
finance 8% +$6
sports 7% −$473
world 3% −$34
politics 3% −$1
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -78.7% -80.7% 21% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 55 -48.4% -53.4% 45% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 105 -37.5% -43.4% 51% 7% -12.8%
all 105 -37.5% -43.4% 51% 7% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.4% 7% -12.8%
10% -48.8% 6% -21.1%
15% -53.8% 4% -28.7%
20% -58.3% 1% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$20 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$1,962
Realized−$500
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses54 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions49
Markets (closed)105 / 94
History coverage59d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,030 $1,040 +$10 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $692 $693 +$1 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $24 $27 +$2 (+10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $24 +$6 (+33%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $23 +$5 (+28%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $21 −$1 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $2 $16 +$14 (+863%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $2 $16 +$14 (+863%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+26%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+557%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+479%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+383%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+305%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+269%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $4 +$3 (+155%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-56%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $675 +$11 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $697 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $695 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $698 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $691 +$7 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $697 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $53 −$51 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $797 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $798 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $798 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $396 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $399 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $298 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $599 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 28 $1,186 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 27 $596 +$1 +0%
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026? May 27 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $598 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $598 +$1 +0%
Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $275M? May 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? May 25 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $649 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $348 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 21? May 21 $300 $0 +0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m? May 21 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $693 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $687 19h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $675 22h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,030 22h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $92 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $489 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $697 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $37 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $91 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $695 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $699 4d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $698 4d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $468 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,961.69 · official $1,961.81 (match) · 340 history records