Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6D 0x6d94…c0df crypto 624 markets active 1d ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%341W / 281L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day70.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$49
14 days−$76
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$58
other 25% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 279 -7.6% -16.4% 59% 55% -15.8%
≤30d 622 -3.6% -12.8% 55% 52% -13.1%
≤90d 622 -3.6% -12.8% 55% 52% -13.1%
all 622 -3.6% -12.8% 55% 52% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 52% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 40% -21.5%
15% -28.7% 32% -29.0%
20% -35.7% 26% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses341 / 281
Open positions2
Markets (closed)622 / 624
History coverage13d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day70.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 622 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +41%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +138%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +117%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 29h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 5d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $0 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.71 · official $6.71 (match) · 1353 history records