trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 17% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 17% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 17% | 0% | -9.9% |
| all | 22 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 41% | 0% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.4% | 0% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -18.1% | 0% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -26.0% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -33.3% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $33 | $33 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 18 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 15 | $68 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 14 | $23 | +$1 | +3% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $64 | −$2 | -3% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $33 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 11 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 09 | $74 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 09 | $35 | $0 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 04 | $38 | −$1 | -2% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 03 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 02 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 27 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 05 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? | May 27 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? | May 26 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 07 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? | Apr 05 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | Mar 28 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? | Mar 26 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday? | Mar 11 | $16 | $0 | +2% |