Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:48:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6D 0x6d9c…5369 sports 401 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$125 (+1%) realized +$126 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate64%254W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$104
14 days+$104
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$113
crypto 2% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +26.4% +14.4% 73% 73% +17.6%
≤30d 15 +26.4% +14.4% 73% 73% +17.6%
≤90d 400 -2.0% -11.4% 64% 58% -8.5%
all 400 -2.0% -11.4% 64% 58% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 58% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 42% -17.2%
15% -27.6% 26% -25.2%
20% -34.7% 18% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$126
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses254 / 146
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions1
Markets (closed)400 / 401
History coverage70d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 400 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 89¢ 88¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $30 +$32 +105%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $10 +$18 +180%
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5) Jun 27 $30 +$25 +82%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $6 +$4 +73%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $30 +$19 +62%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $70 +$13 +18%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $45 +$29 +64%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $33 +$12 +36%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $2 +$1 +36%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $5 +$3 +62%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $19 +$6 +33%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina Jun 21 $17 −$5 -30%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$18 -87%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $29 −$27 -92%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $9 −$8 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 1 Winner May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $6 +$1 +18%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $7 +$3 +38%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2AM ET May 27 $9 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 27 $6 +$5 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 27 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 27 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 27 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 27 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 27 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 27 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 89¢ $36 4m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $62 58m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $29 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 35¢ $10 2h
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5) SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $55 3h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $10 3h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 57¢ $6 3h
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5) BUY HULIGANI 54¢ $30 8h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $49 21h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 61¢ $30 24h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $83 24h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Yellow Submarine 86¢ $60 28h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Yellow Submarine 77¢ $10 28h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $74 47h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 82¢ $8 2d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 34¢ $7 2d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 68¢ $30 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $45 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 73¢ $33 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 1¢ $0 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 26¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 5¢ $2 2d
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) SELL TEAM VISION 75¢ $7 3d
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 46¢ $2 3d
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 46¢ $2 3d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Yellow Submarine 2¢ $0 3d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Yellow Submarine 53¢ $3 3d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Yellow Submarine 47¢ $0 3d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Yellow Submarine 47¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.00 · official $35.00 (match) · 1755 history records