Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6d9d…6703 crypto 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+2%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate79%62W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$80
14 days+$80
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% −$368
other 35% +$150
crypto 13% −$17
world 11% +$262
politics 4% +$9
weather 2% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.3% -20.7% 72% 56% +4.0%
≤30d 18 -12.3% -20.7% 72% 56% +4.0%
≤90d 78 +9.0% -1.4% 79% 49% -7.9%
all 78 +9.0% -1.4% 79% 49% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 49% -7.9%
10% -10.8% 29% -16.7%
15% -19.4% 13% -24.8%
20% -27.3% 12% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$36 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses62 / 16
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage90d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $30 +$10 +32%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $55 +$10 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 +$10 +20%
Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Elena Rybakina Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can Jun 22 $85 +$15 +17%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $86 +$21 +24%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $96 +$9 +9%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $54 +$30 +55%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $9 +$3 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +26%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 09 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $48 −$41 -85%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 09 $30 +$18 +58%
Will Dundee FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $25 +$5 +20%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $22 +$3 +12%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 27 $7 $0 +3%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $21 +$2 +10%
Chemnitz 99 vs. Brose Bamberg Apr 27 $12 +$3 +26%
Will FK Akron Tolyatti win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $11 $0 +4%
Will Konyaspor win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $10 +$2 +19%
Will HNK Gorica win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $8 +$2 +22%
Cagliari Calcio leading at halftime? Apr 27 $19 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 27 $18 $0 +2%
Krka vs. BC Vienna Apr 27 $17 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 27 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 27 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $13 +$3 +20%
Set 1 Winner: Noskova vs Gauff Apr 27 $13 $0 +2%
Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Luciano Darderi Apr 27 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 27 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 27 $5 +$1 +16%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Apr 27 $11 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Tsitsipas vs Aguilar Apr 27 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 27 $9 +$2 +25%
Madrid Open: Solana Sierra vs Karolina Pliskova Apr 27 $9 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 27 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 27 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 27 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 27 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 27 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 27 $7 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $40 1h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $65 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 84¢ $55 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $60 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 82¢ $50 9h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can SELL Alejandro Moro Canas 100¢ $100 32h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 85¢ $85 32h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL OG 100¢ $106 32h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 80¢ $86 34h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 98¢ $105 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 90¢ $96 3d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $84 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $12 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $9 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $9 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 3d
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 3d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 87¢ $8 3d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $54 4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will England win on 2026- BUY 43¢ $1 6d
Will Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $9 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 45d
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 173 history records