Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6D
0x6d9f…9790
world · 79 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$117,511 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$46,038 · open +$52,173
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$456,607
Realized+$46,038
Unrealized+$52,173
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses34 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Open positions71
Markets (closed)56 / 79
Avg bet$9,582
Trades / day175.6
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 71 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$198
7 days−$696
14 days+$6,865
30 days+$46,038
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 83¢ 91¢ $74,480 $82,123 +$7,643 (+10%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 69¢ 99¢ $30,290 $43,257 +$12,967 (+43%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $22,385 $25,001 +$2,615 (+12%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 81¢ 94¢ $19,988 $23,324 +$3,336 (+17%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 64¢ 88¢ $16,100 $21,875 +$5,775 (+36%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 94¢ $17,819 $19,634 +$1,815 (+10%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 72¢ 86¢ $15,111 $18,039 +$2,929 (+19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 40¢ $10,787 $13,081 +$2,294 (+21%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 75¢ 81¢ $12,052 $13,025 +$972 (+8%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 63¢ 74¢ $10,054 $11,800 +$1,746 (+17%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No 72¢ 88¢ $9,368 $11,517 +$2,149 (+23%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 69¢ 62¢ $12,350 $11,264 −$1,086 (-9%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $9,150 $10,181 +$1,032 (+11%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 76¢ 99¢ $7,550 $9,850 +$2,300 (+30%)
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? No 89¢ 99¢ $7,758 $8,655 +$898 (+12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $5,995 $8,529 +$2,534 (+42%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 82¢ 72¢ $9,593 $8,503 −$1,090 (-11%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 68¢ $5,661 $7,757 +$2,097 (+37%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 67¢ 76¢ $6,598 $7,534 +$936 (+14%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 72¢ 90¢ $4,967 $6,151 +$1,184 (+24%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $5,079 $5,643 +$564 (+11%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 63¢ 88¢ $4,022 $5,605 +$1,583 (+39%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 91¢ 83¢ $6,015 $5,539 −$475 (-8%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 63¢ 75¢ $4,607 $5,473 +$867 (+19%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 80¢ 83¢ $5,200 $5,395 +$195 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $30 −$789 -2629%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2,625 −$26 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5,600 +$327 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $665 −$600 -90%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $120 −$95 -79%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $18,734 +$1,361 +7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $2,327 −$255 -11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $8,472 +$274 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1,218 −$123 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 09 $49 +$149 +300%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $8,820 +$4,733 +54%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $9,489 +$2,376 +25%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 08 $811 +$64 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $17,873 −$12,096 -68%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $735 −$733 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $19,790 −$3,569 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $20,469 +$8,307 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $3,055 −$614 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $11,064 +$5,984 +54%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $73,153 +$7,407 +10%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $2,097 +$2,130 +102%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,615 +$929 +20%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $247 −$47 -19%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $3,289 −$3,278 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $31,928 +$3,633 +11%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $474 −$345 -73%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,453 −$2,413 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $370 −$343 -93%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 31 $14 +$336 +2406%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $2,236 −$2,206 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $29,445 −$7,349 -25%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $19,563 +$2,861 +15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 31 $53 +$826 +1566%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $1,601 −$1,470 -92%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $4,860 $0 +0%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $5,280 +$1,276 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $10,575 +$543 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $6,037 −$300 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $21,079 +$2,755 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $4,884 +$787 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $17,641 +$636 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $21,616 +$3,237 +15%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? May 27 $3,350 +$301 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 27 $666 +$4,283 +643%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $13,826 +$2,425 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 27 $6,771 +$12,272 +181%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $10,176 +$10,966 +108%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $4,878 +$2 +0%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $120 +$240 +200%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 62% +$35,802
other 26% +$51,638
crypto 7% +$7,407
finance 5% +$3,852
politics 0% +$301
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 88¢ $9 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 78¢ $351 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 78¢ $43 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 88¢ $880 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 78¢ $9 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 78¢ $259 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 88¢ $12 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 88¢ $100 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 78¢ $31 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $1,931 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 78¢ $12 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 78¢ $710 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $1,445 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 78¢ $204 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $320 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,587 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,160 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $195 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $405 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $58 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $78 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $354 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $187 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $108 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $454 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $57 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+73.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -1.9% -11.3% 47% 24% -9.5%
≤30d 56 +91.7% +73.5% 61% 41% +0.3%
≤90d 56 +91.7% +73.5% 61% 41% +0.3%
all 56 +91.7% +73.5% 61% 41% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover175.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +73.5% 41% +0.3%
10% +56.9% 29% -9.3%
15% ← realistic here +41.7% 25% -18.1%
20% +27.8% 23% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $456,606.89 · official $456,879.66 (match) · 3500 history records