Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6daa…1b65 other 23 markets active 2d ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$962 (+12%) realized +$822 · open +$140
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$345per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$1,166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$393
7 days+$898
14 days+$702
30 days+$797
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$588
finance 37% +$413
world 1% +$4
sports 1% −$90
crypto 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +22.3% +10.7% 75% 75% +16.2%
≤30d 16 -10.3% -18.8% 56% 50% +1.0%
≤90d 16 -10.3% -18.8% 56% 50% +1.0%
all 16 -10.3% -18.8% 56% 50% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 50% +1.0%
10% -26.6% 31% -8.7%
15% -33.7% 31% -17.5%
20% -40.2% 19% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$213 vs −$160 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$1,166
Realized+$822
Unrealized+$140
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)16 / 23
History coverage29d
Avg bet$345
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $166 $301 +$135 (+81%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $252 +$52 (+26%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $224 $217 −$7 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $188 $101 −$87 (-46%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $76 $99 +$23 (+30%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 96¢ $72 $86 +$14 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $305 +$393 +129%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $687 +$313 +46%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2,050 +$307 +15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $118 −$115 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $765 −$760 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $687 +$293 +43%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $834 +$145 +17%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$178 +88%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $83 −$81 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $104 +$190 +183%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $780 +$92 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $96 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $305 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $687 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $636 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $118 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $765 7d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $285 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $88 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $4 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $17 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $6 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $578 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $979 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $343 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $343 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $501 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $381 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 9d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $29 10d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $334 10d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $22 10d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $12 10d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $83 10d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1,720 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 98¢ $208 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 98¢ $13 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,166.25 · official $1,166.25 (match) · 91 history records