Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6D 0x6dad…5c7e sports 225 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$600 (-14%) realized −$601 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%84W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$106
14 days−$73
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$477
other 11% −$147
crypto 7% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +37.2% +24.1% 42% 42% +3.7%
≤30d 149 +2.9% -6.9% 40% 40% -13.8%
≤90d 223 -2.5% -11.8% 38% 37% -22.2%
all 223 -2.5% -11.8% 38% 37% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 37% -22.2%
10% -20.3% 35% -29.6%
15% -28.0% 34% -36.4%
20% -35.0% 30% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$17 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$601
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses84 / 139
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions1
Markets (closed)223 / 225
History coverage84d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $108 $109 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 +$185 +794%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 −$7 -24%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $60 −$58 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $35 −$34 -97%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $99 −$4 -4%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $70 −$68 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $107 +$61 +57%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $53 +$54 +101%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$38 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $31 +$68 +223%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$113 +1254%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$69 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $31 +$40 +132%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $17 +$13 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$9 +95%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $52 −$29 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $127 −$84 -66%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $46 +$59 +128%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +541%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $23 −$22 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$11 +107%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -92%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $28 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 +$8 +55%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $24 −$14 -57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$6 +126%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$116 +572%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $5 +$10 +197%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$6 +118%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +64%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 Jun 12 $5 +$16 +311%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $110 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $37 9h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $41 9h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 12h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $208 12h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $23 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 34¢ $23 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $31 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $60 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $35 20h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $94 20h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $99 25h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $70 27h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $107 34h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $107 34h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $53 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $99 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 30¢ $31 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $122 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 83¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $11 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $71 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $71 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.25 · official $109.25 (match) · 371 history records