Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6D 0x6dae…a48e crypto 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$215 (-11%) realized −$204 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$177
7 days+$177
14 days−$24
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$165
sports 42% −$114
other 15% +$55
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +138.2% +115.5% 100% 100% +113.0%
≤30d 6 +9.2% -1.2% 50% 50% -29.8%
≤90d 18 -26.8% -33.7% 33% 33% -38.0%
all 21 -13.9% -22.1% 33% 33% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 33% -22.9%
10% -29.6% 33% -30.2%
15% -36.4% 33% -37.0%
20% -42.6% 33% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$63 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized−$204
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage112d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $189 $178 −$11 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $33 +$47 +144%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $98 +$129 +133%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $55 +$43 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $198 −$198 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $353 −$46 -13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 23 $100 −$93 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 22? May 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 18-24? May 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 21? May 18 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? May 17 $94 +$66 +70%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 15? May 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 10? Apr 10 $45 −$8 -17%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on April 7? Apr 08 $50 +$70 +138%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 April 6-12? Apr 08 $116 +$84 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 11? Apr 07 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 07 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 5? Mar 04 $77 +$229 +298%
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $21 −$2 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $68 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $123 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $33 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $98 34h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 56¢ $12 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 56¢ $4 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 56¢ $39 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 66¢ $198 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 26¢ $10 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 39¢ $36 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 61¢ $300 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 61¢ $307 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 22? BUY No 35¢ $34 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $17 33d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 33d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $26 33d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $26 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 21? BUY No 42¢ $84 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 33d
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $70 34d
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 34d
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 34d
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 34d
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY magic 16¢ $18 35d
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY magic 16¢ $10 35d
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY magic 16¢ $1 35d
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY magic 31¢ $12 35d
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY magic 31¢ $23 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.25 · official $178.25 (match) · 67 history records