Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:50:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6db5…7b87 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$5 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,603per market
Trades / day133.7pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$55
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 22% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 22% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 22% 0% -9.9%
all 9 -0.3% -9.8% 22% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover133.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% ← realistic here -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
33.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3,603
Trades / day133.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $187 $181 −$6 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $4,551 −$47 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $99 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $153 −$3 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $454 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $108 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,382 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 35m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 36m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 37m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $68 38m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $69 40m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $32 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $145 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $52 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $53 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $170 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $17 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $118 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $127 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $134 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $222 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $28 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $445 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $138 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,095 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $90 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.89 · official $185.89 (match) · 683 history records