Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:35:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6db7…3987 crypto 287 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate72%208W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$29
14 days+$25
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$13
crypto 25% −$4
other 11% +$6
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +3.1% -6.7% 79% 21% -2.8%
≤30d 75 -8.1% -16.8% 61% 28% -5.9%
≤90d 121 -3.1% -12.4% 70% 30% -7.2%
all 287 -3.4% -12.6% 72% 29% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 29% -8.6%
10% -21.0% 15% -17.4%
15% -28.6% 10% -25.3%
20% -35.6% 6% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses208 / 79
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)287 / 287
History coverage238d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 287 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 25 $35 +$1 +4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 25 $34 +$1 +4%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Fiona Crawley Jun 25 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$2 +5%
ITF Claremont: Paola Lopez vs Olivia Allegre Jun 24 $29 +$1 +5%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Veronika Podrez Jun 24 $27 +$2 +7%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Robin Montgomery vs Elvina Kalieva Jun 24 $25 +$2 +7%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 24 $23 +$2 +7%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 24 $23 +$1 +4%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chris Rodesch vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 24 $21 +$1 +6%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +59%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$1 -7%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 +$1 +21%
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Eunhye Lee Jun 23 $5 +$1 +21%
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 23 $10 $0 +5%
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Ignacio Monzon Jun 22 $10 +$1 +8%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 AND Jun 22 $5 +$2 +32%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -22%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 +$13 +180%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Jun 15 $16 −$1 -8%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $11 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Centurion 2: Alec Beckley vs Tuncay Duran Jun 04 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +131%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis SELL Oliver Tarvet 100¢ $37 37m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Oliver Tarvet 96¢ $35 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Jelena Ostapenko 100¢ $35 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Jelena Ostapenko 96¢ $34 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Fiona Crawley SELL Alina Korneeva 100¢ $34 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Fiona Crawley BUY Alina Korneeva 97¢ $33 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 96¢ $32 15h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 17h
ITF Claremont: Paola Lopez vs Olivia Allegre SELL Paola Lopez 100¢ $30 17h
ITF Claremont: Paola Lopez vs Olivia Allegre BUY Paola Lopez 95¢ $29 18h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Veronika Podrez SELL Maria Timofeeva 100¢ $29 18h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Veronika Podrez BUY Maria Timofeeva 93¢ $27 18h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Robin Montgomery vs Elvina Kalieva SELL Robin Montgomery 100¢ $27 18h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Robin Montgomery vs Elvina Kalieva BUY Robin Montgomery 93¢ $25 19h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Elizara Yaneva SELL Katie Volynets 100¢ $0 20h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Elizara Yaneva SELL Katie Volynets 100¢ $25 20h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Katie Volynets 93¢ $23 20h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Lucia Bronzetti 100¢ $23 20h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 96¢ $23 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chris Rodesch vs Dusan Lajovic SELL Dusan Lajovic 100¢ $23 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chris Rodesch vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Dusan Lajovic 94¢ $21 21h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 94¢ $20 33h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 33h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 33h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 34h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 85¢ $9 34h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $10 35h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 639 history records