Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6db8…be1c other 237 markets active 3h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$19
14 days−$29
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$41
sports 22% −$16
culture 9% −$11
politics 7% −$5
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)237 / 237
History coverage127d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 237 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $253 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $223 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $551 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $440 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $242 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $275 −$2 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $124 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $582 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $630 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $179 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $225 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $618 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $197 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $258 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $114 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $328 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $238 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $359 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $337 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $376 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $612 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $230 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $183 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 07 $353 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $173 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $334 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $169 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $371 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 3h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 4h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 6h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $46 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 10h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $34 13h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $34 15h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 16h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 17h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 19h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 20h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 22h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 24h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 24h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 25h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 28h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 30h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 31h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 33h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 34h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 35h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 39h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 40h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 42h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $47 46h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 47h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1334 history records