Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:08:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6D
0x6db9…1baf
crypto · 823 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,611 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,604 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized−$3,604
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses421 / 470
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions72
Markets (closed)891 / 823
History coverage12d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day256.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 72 History 891 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,522
7 days−$7,664
14 days−$3,604
30 days−$3,604
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 56¢ 98¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+76%)
Will Dricus Du Plessis be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+147%)
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Atlanta Falcons next? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Kansas City Chiefs next? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+31%)
Will Carolyn Maloney be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+75%)
Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Will Maya Joint be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Will Markéta Vondroušová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+144%)
Will Petr Yan fight Alexander Volkanovski next? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-62%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Rams next? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-58%)
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+81%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Washington Commanders next? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Houston Texans next? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will Sonay Kartal be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+62%)
Will Linda Nosková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $884 −$1,768 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$29 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$40 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$20 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $40 −$80 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$9 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$20 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$40 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$82 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$37 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$44 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$21 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$20 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$21 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$23 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$74 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $45 −$90 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$10 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$29 -204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$80 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$38 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$39 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$29 -205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$42 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $70 −$140 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$18 -200%
Will Seamus Casey win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $1 −$3 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $44 −$88 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$9,254
other 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $143 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $36 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $96 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $114 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $53 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $16 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $105 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $132 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $26 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $153 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $156 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $71 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 666 -21.5% -29.0% 43% 39% -14.1%
≤30d 891 -13.9% -22.1% 47% 43% -8.2%
≤90d 891 -13.9% -22.1% 47% 43% -8.2%
all 891 -13.9% -22.1% 47% 43% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover256.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 43% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 39% -17.0%
15% -36.4% 36% -25.0%
20% -42.6% 34% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.24 · official $17.59 (match) · 3500 history records