Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dba…04aa sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$68 (-33%) realized −$52 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$75
other 18% +$11
crypto 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -28.2% -35.0% 36% 36% -38.0%
≤30d 14 -28.2% -35.0% 36% 36% -38.0%
≤90d 14 -28.2% -35.0% 36% 36% -38.0%
all 14 -28.2% -35.0% 36% 36% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 36% -38.0%
10% -41.2% 36% -43.9%
15% -46.9% 36% -49.4%
20% -52.1% 36% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$52
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage5d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 50¢ 24¢ $32 $16 −$16 (-51%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $41 −$40 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $10 +$8 +79%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Will England w Jun 18 $20 +$21 +104%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 +$12 +146%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 50¢ $32 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $20 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 50¢ $10 6h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Mexic BUY 8¢ $5 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 38¢ $5 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $10 33h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 2d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Will England w BUY 48¢ $20 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 2d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.44 · official $21.44 (match) · 32 history records