Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:20:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dbc…0e6f other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$144 (-28%) realized −$145 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$151
sports 14% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.5% -13.6% 75% 38% -40.7%
≤30d 8 -4.5% -13.6% 75% 38% -40.7%
≤90d 8 -4.5% -13.6% 75% 38% -40.7%
all 8 -4.5% -13.6% 75% 38% -40.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 38% -40.7%
10% -21.8% 25% -46.3%
15% -29.4% 25% -51.5%
20% -36.3% 12% -56.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$101 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$145
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage5d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $75 $75 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $72 +$3 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $62 +$10 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $32 +$27 +82%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $23 +$10 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $19 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $75 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 98¢ $75 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $72 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $62 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $142 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $60 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $32 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $23 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $19 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.31 · official $75.31 (match) · 20 history records