Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dbd…ceea crypto 505 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4,854 (-1%) realized −$4,854 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate70%352W / 149L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$959per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$146
7 days−$182
14 days−$113
30 days−$3,634
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$463
weather 9% +$58
other 8% −$1,421
world 3% −$3,623
sports 2% −$402
politics 0% −$14
tech 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -6.3% -15.2% 59% 24% -10.2%
≤30d 87 +0.1% -9.4% 69% 26% -12.8%
≤90d 244 -3.4% -12.6% 70% 20% -10.4%
all 501 -8.0% -16.7% 70% 20% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 20% -10.4%
10% -24.7% 18% -19.0%
15% -32.0% 15% -26.8%
20% -38.7% 12% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$1,485) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$76 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$4,854
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses352 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions4
Markets (closed)501 / 505
History coverage230d
Avg bet$959
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 501 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 −$21 -52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $81 +$14 +17%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $41 −$20 -49%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $41 −$13 -31%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $4,500 +$4 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$12 -49%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $4,500 +$4 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$40 -39%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$17 -55%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $4,501 +$13 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $195 +$11 +5%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 14? Jun 14 $242 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2,700 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 14? Jun 14 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $850 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $644 +$1 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $33 +$17 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$53 +105%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $186 −$4 -2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$22 +109%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $4,350 +$4 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 +$15 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$30 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $20 −$17 -81%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? Jun 11 $4,502 +$21 +0%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $20 +$17 +86%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2,400 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? Jun 10 $2,346 +$4 +0%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $7 −$6 -84%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 9? Jun 09 $2,455 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? Jun 08 $3,855 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 7? Jun 07 $4,105 +$4 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 6? Jun 06 $4,800 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $4,501 +$14 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $25 +$2 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 4? Jun 04 $2,781 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,951 +$10 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $30 +$9 +30%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $20 +$7 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $15 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 18h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 22¢ $9 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $19 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 50¢ $19 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $19 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 76¢ $29 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 27h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,500 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 29¢ $13 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $25 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $4,500 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $61 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 26¢ $14 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.88 · official $124.88 (match) · 1530 history records