Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:36:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6D 0x6dbe…cec2 sports 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$124 (-6%) realized −$94 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%29W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$35
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$171
crypto 13% −$41
other 3% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -67.2% -70.3% 17% 17% -23.2%
≤30d 18 -18.2% -26.0% 39% 39% -6.8%
≤90d 18 -18.2% -26.0% 39% 39% -6.8%
all 93 -24.4% -31.6% 31% 30% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 30% -19.8%
10% -38.2% 30% -27.4%
15% -44.1% 29% -34.5%
20% -49.6% 26% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$13 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$94
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses29 / 64
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage233d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 59¢ 24¢ $34 $14 −$20 (-58%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -8%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$11 -35%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 +$13 +48%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $90 +$49 +55%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $35 +$51 +148%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 12 $5 +$7 +145%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $6 +$6 +99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $34 −$33 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $2 +$2 +90%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winner Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Mar 09 $15 +$12 +79%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Mar 09 $9 +$10 +110%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Play Mar 08 $13 +$7 +52%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs All Gamers - Map 2 Winner Mar 08 $10 +$12 +119%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Pl Mar 08 $10 −$5 -51%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 07 $19 +$1 +4%
Valorant: All Gamers vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playof Mar 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT Masters Santia Mar 07 $30 +$35 +117%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Play Mar 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs T1 - Map 2 Winner Mar 04 $5 +$12 +230%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 04 $30 −$12 -38%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Mar 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Mar 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: T1 vs Team Liquid - Map 1 Winner Mar 01 $25 −$21 -83%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Feb 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Feb 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Feb 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Feb 17 $22 +$62 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Feb 17 $14 +$8 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Feb 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $10 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $10 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $19 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 19h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 21¢ $15 31h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 47h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $27 4d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $2 4d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $10 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $90 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 90¢ $86 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 23¢ $10 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 46¢ $24 8d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 50¢ $10 8d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL XLG Gaming 40¢ $11 10d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 17¢ $5 10d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $12 10d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 49¢ $6 10d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FULL SENSE 38¢ $34 11d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo SELL Dragon Ranger Gaming 57¢ $4 11d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 29¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.13 · official $14.13 (match) · 169 history records