Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:59:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6D 0x6dc2…0b79 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 543d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,534 (+101%) realized +$9,507 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,052per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$612now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,292
7 days−$1,292
14 days−$1,292
30 days−$1,292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 68% +$10,513
other 22% −$1,134
crypto 6% +$27
sports 3% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -68.6% -71.6% 0% 0% -71.6%
≤30d 1 -68.6% -71.6% 0% 0% -71.6%
≤90d 1 -68.6% -71.6% 0% 0% -71.6%
all 8 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 50% +86.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 50% +86.0%
10% -15.3% 50% +68.2%
15% -23.5% 50% +51.9%
20% -31.0% 38% +37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +106% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,687 vs −$347 · ×7.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.75 per $1 lost it wins $7.75
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$612
Realized+$9,507
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage543d
Avg bet$1,052
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $585 $612 +$27 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1,884 −$1,292 -69%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $115 +$90 +78%
Will Celta Vigo vs. Barcelona end in a draw? Nov 09 $58 −$53 -92%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $90 +$78 +86%
Will Manchester City vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Nov 09 $43 −$33 -76%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $184 +$67 +37%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2025-10-30? Oct 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? Apr 14 $6,486 +$10,513 +162%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $602 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $592 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,884 10d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $205 223d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 223d
Will Celta Vigo vs. Barcelona end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 223d
Will Celta Vigo vs. Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $58 223d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? BUY Yes 55¢ $110 223d
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $168 223d
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 223d
Will Manchester City vs. Liverpool end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 223d
Will Manchester City vs. Liverpool end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $43 223d
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? BUY Yes 51¢ $80 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $123 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 60¢ $74 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL T1 51¢ $74 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 37¢ $54 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 63¢ $54 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 65¢ $56 223d
Will LDU de Quito win on 2025-10-30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 233d
Will LDU de Quito win on 2025-10-30? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 233d
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? BUY Yes 35¢ $2,301 435d
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? BUY Yes 35¢ $2,723 464d
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,003 490d
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? SELL Yes 80¢ $697 517d
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? BUY Yes 53¢ $459 543d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $611.93 · official $622.57 · 38 history records