Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:54:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dc2…f7ca politics 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$1
sports 17% $0
other 17% $0
crypto 11% $0
economics 6% $0
world 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
all 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage114d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $85 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 31 $86 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $86 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 16 $86 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 17 $87 $0 +0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $87 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $87 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 07 $175 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $87 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $87 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $87 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 14 $87 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $87 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 12h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $85 10d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 11d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $86 25d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $86 25d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $86 35d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $86 35d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $86 40d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $86 40d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $86 42d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $86 42d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $86 47d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $86 48d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $87 68d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $87 69d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $87 72d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $4 72d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $83 72d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 76d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 76d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $87 78d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $87 79d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 85d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 86d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 89d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 89d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 99d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 99d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $87 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records