Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dc3…f57e world 48 markets active 4d ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,384 (-1%) realized −$3,543 · open +$159
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate68%32W / 15L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$8,332per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$8,571now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$69
14 days+$69
30 days−$9,281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 99% +$927
other 1% +$45
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -36.2% -42.3% 50% 50% +13.8%
≤30d 20 -10.0% -18.5% 70% 15% -15.1%
≤90d 47 -8.2% -17.0% 68% 13% -9.3%
all 47 -8.2% -17.0% 68% 13% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 13% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 9% -18.0%
15% -32.2% 4% -25.9%
20% -38.8% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$9,379) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$465 vs −$1,006 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$8,571
Realized−$3,543
Unrealized+$159
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses32 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage73d
Avg bet$8,332
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $8,412 $8,571 +$159 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 23 $264 +$73 +28%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $122 −$80 -66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $29,178 −$7,242 -25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,434 −$20 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $11,977 −$2,456 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $9,558 +$856 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $88 +$11 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $58 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 10 $49,436 +$1,553 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $7,133 +$437 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $9,400 +$600 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $155 +$3 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $121 +$9 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $4,191 −$4,191 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $20,892 +$798 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $475 +$6 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,501 +$46 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $802 +$186 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $2,656 +$131 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $55 −$25 -46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $74 −$3 -4%
James Comey arrested by May 15? May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 28 $26 −$4 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $15,957 +$1,171 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $34,691 +$3,612 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $55,505 +$1,851 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $9,660 +$830 +9%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $103 −$2 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $9,379 +$623 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $6,006 +$594 +10%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? May 16 $2,399 +$76 +3%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? May 13 $3 +$2 +56%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 13 $20,436 +$1,248 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 12 $93 +$7 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $96 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $88 +$8 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 08 $1,129 +$7 +1%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $23 −$23 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 05 $118 +$6 +6%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? May 02 $15 +$3 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 30 $1,003 +$13 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Apr 29 $1,536 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $98 −$24 -25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 26 $89 +$9 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $310 +$119 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $234 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $4,299 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $400 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $402 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $35 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $13,264 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $461 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $40,480 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $111 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $3,330 8d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $249 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $18,826 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $17,101 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $272 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $4 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $6 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $14 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $33 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $14 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $13 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $45 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $35 14d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $42 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 71¢ $21,936 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 61¢ $1,414 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 95¢ $10 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 95¢ $15,714 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,570.91 · official $8,570.91 (match) · 626 history records