Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:53:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dc3…6274 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized +$7 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$91
14 days+$91
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$79
crypto 21% −$28
world 11% −$60
other 4% −$6
weather 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +70.4% +54.1% 78% 78% +53.9%
≤30d 9 +70.4% +54.1% 78% 78% +53.9%
≤90d 19 +16.6% +5.5% 53% 53% +21.4%
all 31 +11.6% +0.9% 45% 45% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 45% -12.1%
10% -8.7% 45% -20.5%
15% -17.5% 39% -28.2%
20% -25.6% 29% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)31 / 37
History coverage106d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 60¢ 54¢ $113 $101 −$12 (-11%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 68¢ 66¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$15 +97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$11 +52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 +$4 +44%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $26 +$25 +97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 +$21 +140%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 1 Mar 20 $2 +$6 +310%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $2 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 19? Mar 20 $5 +$2 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 19? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 19? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 19? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or higher on March 19 Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 01 $36 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9AM ET Mar 01 $30 −$13 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 01 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Mar 01 $11 −$8 -75%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Mar 01 $1 +$5 +547%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 01 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 01 $3 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4AM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $13 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $14 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $16 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $15 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $101 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 32h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 54¢ $10 32h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 32h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $8 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $15 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $15 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 68¢ $10 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $9 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $9 87d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 1 SELL Yes 100¢ $8 87d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 87d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $2 89d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 89d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 89d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 1 BUY Yes 24¢ $2 89d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 19? BUY No 66¢ $2 89d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 19? BUY No 67¢ $5 89d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 19? BUY No 57¢ $3 89d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.89 · official $174.89 (match) · 69 history records