Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6D 0x6dc4…6770 crypto 336 markets active 3h ago coverage 149d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 149d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$34,675 (+7%) realized +$25,033 · open +$9,642
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate54%197W / 168L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,541per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$98,261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 149d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$12,889
finance 39% +$3,553
other 17% +$4,837
world 3% +$811
economics 0% +$6
sports 0% +$81
weather 0% +$8
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -95.0% -95.4% 2% 0% -60.1%
≤30d 137 -62.1% -65.8% 26% 15% -31.4%
≤90d 319 -33.4% -39.7% 52% 19% -12.1%
all 365 -31.2% -37.8% 54% 20% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.8% 20% -11.5%
10% -43.7% 10% -20.0%
15% ← realistic here -49.2% 5% -27.7%
20% -54.1% 4% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$865) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$237 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$98,261
Realized+$25,033
Unrealized+$9,642
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses197 / 168
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions54
Markets (closed)365 / 336
History coverage149d ⚠
Avg bet$1,541
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 86¢ $9,669 $11,192 +$1,523 (+16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 76¢ $6,575 $8,548 +$1,973 (+30%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 87¢ 90¢ $7,816 $8,077 +$260 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 89¢ 97¢ $6,529 $7,129 +$600 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 94¢ 98¢ $5,660 $5,907 +$247 (+4%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 92¢ 99¢ $5,233 $5,650 +$417 (+8%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? No 91¢ 100¢ $5,155 $5,621 +$466 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 90¢ 100¢ $4,501 $4,982 +$481 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 92¢ $3,238 $3,770 +$532 (+16%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? No 76¢ 99¢ $2,399 $3,125 +$726 (+30%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? No 83¢ 100¢ $2,526 $3,018 +$492 (+19%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 89¢ 98¢ $2,674 $2,928 +$253 (+9%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? No 88¢ 99¢ $2,177 $2,457 +$280 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $2,267 $2,328 +$61 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 91¢ 100¢ $1,978 $2,157 +$179 (+9%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June? No 82¢ 99¢ $1,786 $2,157 +$371 (+21%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? No 85¢ 99¢ $1,408 $1,644 +$236 (+17%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 88¢ 95¢ $1,248 $1,343 +$94 (+8%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? No 91¢ 99¢ $1,107 $1,212 +$105 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 81¢ 92¢ $1,053 $1,203 +$150 (+14%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 74¢ $1,240 $1,102 −$138 (-11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 81¢ 99¢ $837 $1,019 +$182 (+22%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $983 $1,008 +$25 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 88¢ 98¢ $882 $976 +$94 (+11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 86¢ 100¢ $808 $940 +$132 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 131 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $4500 September 1–7? Jun 19 $103 −$95 -92%
Will Bitcoin dip to $120,000 October 6-12? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $4,200 October 6-12? Jun 19 $171 −$171 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 3? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,700 on September 16? Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 September 29-October 5? Jun 19 $174 −$174 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4700 September 8–14? Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 in November? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4600 and $4700 on September 1? Jun 19 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $104k in October? Jun 19 $830 −$830 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on September 23? Jun 19 $1 $0 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4400 and $4500 on September 5? Jun 19 $9 −$10 -107%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 October 13-19? Jun 19 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3900 on September 8? Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 1 Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $118,000 October 6-12? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 13-19? Jun 19 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3600 September 8–14? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 29-October 5? Jun 19 $2,031 −$2,031 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4500 and $4600 on September 3? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $112k in October? Jun 19 $810 −$810 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4700 and $4800 on September 1? Jun 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 6-12? Jun 19 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $4,300 October 6-12? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $116,000 October 6-12? Jun 19 $920 −$920 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 1 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 1 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3800 on September 5? Jun 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4200 and $4300 on September 10? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 13-19? Jun 19 $765 −$765 -100%
Ethereum above $4400 on September 3? Jun 19 $130 −$130 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4400 and $4500 on September 1? Jun 19 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $4200 September 1–7? Jun 19 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 in November? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $110k in October? Jun 19 $865 −$865 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 29-October 5? Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 29-October 5? Jun 19 $1,771 −$1,771 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November? Jun 19 $100 −$105 -105%
Will Bitcoin dip to $114k in October? Jun 19 $1,260 −$1,300 -103%
Ethereum above $3800 on September 10? Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 October 27-November 2? Jun 19 $6 −$53 -883%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 27-November 2? Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 September 22-28? Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 25? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4400 and $4500 on September 8? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY No 90¢ $2,372 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY No 89¢ $2,525 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $393 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $1,596 3h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $118 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $145 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $132 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $1,444 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1,787 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $806 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $38 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 85¢ $3,379 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $2,339 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $5,542 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $1,317 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $6,369 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $70 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $97 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $213 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $143 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $143 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 69¢ $136 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 69¢ $680 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 69¢ $4,085 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 42¢ $71 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 48¢ $28 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 48¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $14 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 45¢ $137 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98,260.96 · official $98,251.14 (match) · 3500 history records