Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:41:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dc5…2cf2 other 48 markets active 4d ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate26%12W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$344per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 83% −$14
politics 11% −$6
other 4% −$1
sports 1% −$24
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +4.1% -5.8% 27% 9% -6.7%
≤90d 36 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 11% -11.2%
all 47 -0.3% -9.8% 26% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 9% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 9% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 9% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses12 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage602d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $14 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $11 +$5 +46%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $64 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? May 06 $28 $0 +1%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $63 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 18 $64 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $6 +$7 +124%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $6 +$5 +75%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $5 +$8 +146%
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelim Apr 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $25 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 03 $50 $0 +0%
Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 154.5 Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $94 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Mar 05 $5 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 02 $13,557 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $26 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $301 −$1 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $469 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $327 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 4d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 4d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $14 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 21d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 21d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $2 21d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $1 21d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $1 21d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $0 21d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $0 21d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $0 21d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $1 21d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $1 21d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $0 21d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $2 21d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $0 21d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $1 21d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $0 21d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $10 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 23d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 24d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $23 26d
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? SELL No 100¢ $14 26d
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? BUY No 100¢ $14 27d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.80 · official $13.80 (match) · 236 history records