Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:09:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6dc5…5e53 sports 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$380 (+6%) realized +$381 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%83W / 74L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$23
14 days+$229
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$24
other 24% +$71
politics 6% −$22
culture 3% −$36
crypto 2% +$274
world 0% −$10
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +70.6% +54.3% 50% 50% -1.8%
≤30d 19 +43.1% +29.5% 53% 53% +12.1%
≤90d 82 +1.3% -8.3% 48% 45% -12.1%
all 157 +7.2% -3.0% 53% 51% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 51% -5.0%
10% -12.3% 50% -14.1%
15% -20.7% 44% -22.4%
20% -28.5% 32% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$21 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$399
Realized+$381
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses83 / 74
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions7
Markets (closed)157 / 165
History coverage158d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes $40 $32 −$8 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $68 −$9 -13%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 22 $140 −$9 -7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $51 +$141 +275%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 +$46 +446%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 11 $81 +$29 +35%
Will "Data Center" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 07 $50 −$14 -28%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $31 +$25 +81%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 04 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 02 $102 +$36 +35%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $21 +$24 +119%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 30 $30 −$30 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $20 +$11 +55%
No one announced as next James Bond? May 28 $76 +$19 +25%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys May 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 26 $30 +$12 +41%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b May 25 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $31 +$34 +110%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 20 $31 +$7 +24%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $51 +$38 +76%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 18 $51 +$21 +42%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? May 13 $76 −$75 -99%
Will "Polymarket" be said on ICEMAN? May 13 $76 −$76 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic May 11 $30 −$5 -17%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo May 10 $30 +$14 +46%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Terence Atmane May 09 $50 +$12 +24%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yannick Hanfmann vs Luciano Darderi May 08 $30 +$13 +41%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 08 $40 +$8 +19%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca May 08 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 Un May 07 $51 +$10 +20%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 07 $10 +$31 +307%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 06 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Francisco Comesana May 06 $30 −$30 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 06 $6 $0 +4%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $20 +$49 +238%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 01 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Mauthausen: Joel Schwaerzler vs Jan Choinski Apr 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Elena Rybakina Apr 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women's Singles tournament at the Mad Apr 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Apr 28 $30 +$8 +27%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 28 $41 +$40 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 SELL Over 50¢ $59 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $68 1h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 90¢ $131 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $64 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 5d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes $31 5d
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 5d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $104 9d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 15¢ $193 11d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 46¢ $56 11d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes $10 13d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes $10 13d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-0 BUY 55¢ $51 13d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $110 13d
Will "Data Center" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All BUY Yes 59¢ $51 15d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $51 17d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 33¢ $56 19d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 21d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 69¢ $50 21d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $137 23d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 12¢ $45 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 59¢ $30 26d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 63¢ $81 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien $5 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda SELL Francisco Cerundolo 64¢ $47 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda BUY Francisco Cerundolo 67¢ $50 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $399.09 · official $399.24 (match) · 406 history records