Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:18:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dc6…2f8c crypto 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (139 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$325 (+20%) realized +$425 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate70%33W / 14L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day139.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$452
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (139 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +11.9% +1.3% 70% 64% +25.8%
≤30d 47 +11.9% +1.3% 70% 64% +25.8%
≤90d 47 +11.9% +1.3% 70% 64% +25.8%
all 47 +11.9% +1.3% 70% 64% +25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover139.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.3% 64% +25.8%
10% ← realistic here -8.4% 51% +13.7%
15% -17.3% 40% +2.8%
20% -25.4% 28% -7.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$10 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.86 per $1 lost it wins $4.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$425
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses33 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day139.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$49 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$111 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $62 +$69 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$58 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$111 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $111 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $213 +$38 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$21 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$33 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $61 −$20 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$17 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $35 +$25 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $29 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $82 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $101 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $164 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $163 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records