Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
6D 0x6dc6…fe98 other 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$108 (+13%) realized +$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%27W / 42L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$45
14 days+$24
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$79
politics 1% −$1
sports 0% −$3
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +77.8% +60.8% 67% 56% +39.5%
≤30d 30 -3.3% -12.5% 27% 23% -19.6%
≤90d 69 +15.5% +4.5% 39% 33% +0.1%
all 69 +15.5% +4.5% 39% 33% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 33% +0.1%
10% -5.5% 29% -9.4%
15% -14.7% 26% -18.2%
20% -23.0% 22% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses27 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage55d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? No 40¢ 40¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $12 +$17 +139%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $11 −$9 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $21 +$5 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $6 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $13 −$12 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $8 +$24 +311%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$16 +344%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $7 +$4 +60%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $15 −$2 -17%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -11%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $16 −$11 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $45 −$8 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $7 −$6 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $18 −$4 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $7 −$2 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $8 +$7 +81%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $31 −$7 -22%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $23 −$6 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $13 −$12 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $27 −$5 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $6 +$5 +99%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $4 +$1 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 22 $4 +$6 +168%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 22 $3 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $12 −$4 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $7 −$2 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 22 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $11 −$2 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $15 −$10 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $8 +$4 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in May 2026? May 20 $4 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 20 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in May 2026? May 20 $4 $0 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026? May 20 $6 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 20 $4 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 760-779 tweets in May 2026? May 19 $1 $0 -3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 16 $8 +$21 +266%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $45 −$18 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $21 20m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $21 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $21 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $29 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $26 3h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 29h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 30h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $31 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $11 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.36 · official $20.36 (match) · 286 history records