Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:06:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6D
0x6dc9…dba2
weather · 202 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$13 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$21 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$302
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses123 / 63
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)186 / 202
History coverage46d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 16 History 186 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$7
14 days−$10
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Matt Mahan finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tony Thurmond finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Katie Porter finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Antonio Villaraigosa finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County? No 64¢ 99¢ $19 $30 +$11 (+55%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? No 68¢ 66¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? No 56¢ 57¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? No 69¢ 66¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? No 69¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+145%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? No 64¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 14? No 46¢ 99¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+115%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County? No 37¢ 3¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-92%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 14? Yes 52¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1? No 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 28? No 80¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 2? No 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on May 27? No 88¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 27? No 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$6 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -21%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$8 +48%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 14 $6 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$3 -41%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $3 +$2 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 2? Jun 03 $34 +$8 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 2? Jun 03 $35 +$7 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 2? Jun 03 $41 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 2? Jun 03 $42 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 2? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C or below on June 2? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 2? Jun 03 $41 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 2? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 2? Jun 03 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 2? Jun 03 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on June 2? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 2? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? Jun 03 $32 +$9 +29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 2? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 2? Jun 03 $38 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 2? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 2? Jun 03 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 2? Jun 03 $34 +$7 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $7 +$13 +182%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $17 +$3 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 81% −$23
politics 6% −$3
crypto 6% −$2
other 4% +$2
culture 3% −$1
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $2 5m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 65¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 65¢ $3 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 65¢ $3 10m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 63¢ $3 16m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 63¢ $3 17m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 63¢ $3 18m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 57¢ $3 19m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 36¢ $2 22m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $3 41m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 41m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 65¢ $3 42m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 37¢ $2 46m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $3 56m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 56m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 57¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 69¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 62¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -27.6% -34.5% 14% 14% -19.8%
≤30d 173 -2.0% -11.3% 69% 28% -10.0%
≤90d 186 -1.4% -10.8% 66% 27% -10.1%
all 186 -1.4% -10.8% 66% 27% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 27% -10.1%
10% -19.3% 15% -18.7%
15% -27.1% 12% -26.6%
20% -34.2% 7% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.23 · official $302.23 (match) · 890 history records