Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6D
0x6dce…4490
weather · 281 markets active 6h ago
3.5score
+$16,738 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16,718 · open −$40
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$2,187
Realized+$16,718
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses113 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions19
Markets (closed)271 / 281
Avg bet$492
Trades / day46.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 19 History 271 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$618
7 days−$8,173
14 days+$20,078
30 days+$17,628
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 69¢ $1,118 $1,181 +$63 (+6%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 59¢ 61¢ $194 $200 +$7 (+3%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $132 $105 −$27 (-20%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? No 67¢ 50¢ $134 $101 −$33 (-25%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 47¢ $77 $93 +$16 (+21%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $105 $77 −$28 (-27%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $73 $61 −$12 (-16%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 36¢ 21¢ $102 $59 −$43 (-42%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 41¢ 62¢ $38 $58 +$20 (+52%)
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026? No 27¢ 96¢ $14 $48 +$35 (+256%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 48¢ $30 $48 +$18 (+60%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Will USD/KRW hit 1650 (High) in 2026? No 79¢ 81¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Yes 63¢ 53¢ $39 $32 −$6 (-16%)
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 46¢ 20¢ $41 $18 −$23 (-57%)
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-45%)
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 21¢ 8¢ $29 $10 −$19 (-64%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? No 94¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Nothing Ever Happens: April Something 39¢ 0¢ $183 $0 −$183 (-100%)
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C on April 28? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election by less than 10%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? No 33¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Leeds be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025 Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $222 −$162 -73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $204 +$96 +47%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $40 +$210 +525%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $414 +$486 +117%
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $228 +$5 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4,312 +$410 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,503 −$1,502 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $8,145 −$7,395 -91%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $1,143 −$304 -27%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $45,679 +$14,902 +33%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $9,089 +$3,149 +35%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $5,035 +$2,380 +47%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $9,065 +$3,194 +35%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $3,662 +$2,292 +63%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by between 10% Jun 03 $158 −$77 -49%
Will the People Power Party win 5 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 03 $1 $0 -33%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $2,293 +$2,365 +103%
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 03 $69 −$37 -53%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $480 −$41 -8%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 03 $510 −$305 -60%
Will Seoul have 160mm or more of precipitation in May? Jun 03 $3 +$2 +58%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el Jun 03 $17 +$33 +197%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 03 $549 +$267 +49%
Will voter turnout be at least 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral election? Jun 03 $2 +$3 +138%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $347 −$116 -33%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $153 +$263 +172%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 30 $154 +$17 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 27 $14 +$234 +1677%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 26? May 26 $9 −$8 -89%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 25 $42 −$10 -24%
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? May 25 $47 +$53 +112%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $9 +$6 +66%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $38 −$37 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $434 −$423 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $709 −$484 -68%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $39 −$21 -54%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $52 −$38 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 17? May 17 $42 −$20 -46%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 May 16 $72 +$7 +10%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $27 +$169 +630%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 15? May 15 $31 −$30 -99%
Will the Democratic Party win 10 or fewer upper-level local government May 14 $18 −$3 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 61% +$19,695
world 18% +$2,251
other 14% −$7,601
weather 6% +$1,816
crypto 0% +$309
sports 0% +$250
tech 0% −$27
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $222 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 37¢ $311 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $75 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $111 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $222 8h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 39¢ $39 10h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 39¢ $2 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 39¢ $35 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +19.2% +7.8% 45% 27% -55.1%
≤30d 55 +44.5% +30.7% 44% 38% +7.1%
≤90d 271 +37.5% +24.4% 42% 34% +1.5%
all 271 +37.5% +24.4% 42% 34% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.4% 34% +1.5%
10% ← realistic here +12.5% 30% -8.2%
15% +1.6% 24% -17.0%
20% -8.4% 18% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,187.46 · official $2,187.47 (match) · 3500 history records