Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:11:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6D 0x6dd3…8a64 other 463 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$48 (+3%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%232W / 230L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$13
sports 30% +$3
world 1% +$6
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -9.4% -18.0% 40% 40% -2.6%
≤30d 10 -9.4% -18.0% 40% 40% -2.6%
≤90d 26 -19.3% -27.0% 35% 35% -16.6%
all 462 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 47% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 47% -7.0%
10% -16.1% 45% -15.9%
15% -24.2% 41% -24.0%
20% -31.7% 35% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses232 / 230
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)462 / 463
History coverage230d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 462 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 132 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $25 −$21 -82%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$12 +118%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-07? Apr 07 $4 −$4 -90%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $4 +$4 +97%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $3 +$6 +188%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Mar 19 $2 +$4 +212%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $3 +$4 +138%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $3 +$1 +47%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to Score Mar 12 $2 +$2 +104%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $2 +$2 +78%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5) Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $2 +$3 +130%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $2 +$5 +242%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $3 +$5 +163%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Mar 07 $2 +$3 +170%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $2 +$1 +61%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-02? Mar 03 $2 +$2 +104%
Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 2.5 Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2 +$1 +69%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-26? Feb 27 $2 +$2 +70%
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5) Feb 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) Feb 25 $2 −$1 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 25¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 18¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $5 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $6 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 37¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $10 3d
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) BUY FC Barcelona 34¢ $3 61d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 61d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 68d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? BUY No 47¢ $3 68d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 68d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 75d
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? SELL No 100¢ $9 75d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 75d
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? BUY No 54¢ $3 75d
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 75d
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? BUY No 34¢ $3 75d
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) SELL Aston Villa FC 100¢ $6 87d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 87d
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) BUY Aston Villa FC 32¢ $2 87d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-19? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.21 · official $5.21 (match) · 840 history records