Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dd7…8810 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$1
other 26% $0
culture 6% +$1
sports 4% +$3
crypto 2% $0
politics 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +7.7% -2.6% 57% 14% -9.7%
≤30d 12 +4.7% -5.2% 50% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 12 +4.7% -5.2% 50% 8% -9.5%
all 31 +2.4% -7.3% 45% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 6% -9.0%
10% -16.2% 6% -17.7%
15% -24.3% 3% -25.6%
20% -31.7% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage301d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $51 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $8 +$6 +71%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $80 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $37 −$7 -19%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $50 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $27 +$1 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $43 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 23 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 11 $13 $0 +4%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 25 $10 +$3 +30%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $6 $0 +4%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 22 $2 $0 -2%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 21 $3 −$1 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $33 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $49 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $49 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $49 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $17 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $17 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $14 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 15¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $42 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $41 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records