Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:43:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

6D 0x6dd9…596c crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$54 (+0%) realized +$26 · open +$28

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR6%break-even

Win rate72%13W / 5L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown10%max

Avg bet$745per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$2,150now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days+$4

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +6%

net ROI/market (all)-13.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	+0.2%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤90d	15	+0.9%	-8.7%	73%	7%	-9.4%
all	18	-4.8%	-13.9%	72%	6%	-9.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.9%	6%	-9.4%
10%	-22.1%	0%	-18.0%
15%	-29.6%	0%	-26.0%
20%	-36.5%	0%	-33.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 50% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

92% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -12% → late +2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.91 per $1 lost it wins $6.91

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage

Net worth$2,150

Realized+$26

Unrealized+$28

Win rate (resolved)72%

Wins / losses13 / 5

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)18 / 21

History coverage114d

Avg bet$745

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown10%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	98¢	100¢	$1,472	$1,495	+$23 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June?	No	99¢	100¢	$550	$555	+$5 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	87¢	88¢	$100	$100	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	Jun 06	$2,022	+$4	+0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?	May 28	$310	+$1	+0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	May 26	$490	−$1	-0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	May 13	$480	$0	-0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April?	May 05	$94	$0	+0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	May 05	$100	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	May 05	$217	+$1	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	May 05	$2,039	+$6	+0%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets	Apr 16	$1	$0	+3%
Bucks vs. Pistons	Apr 16	$1	$0	+6%
Mavericks vs. Suns	Apr 16	$1	$0	+20%
Bulls vs. Wizards	Apr 09	$1	$0	-18%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m	Apr 08	$2,000	−$2	-0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Apr 01	$5	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March?	Apr 01	$2,134	+$5	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?	Mar 25	$700	+$2	+0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m	Mar 20	$2,800	+$7	+0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Mar 04	$1	−$1	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	87¢	$101	1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	SELL No	100¢	$130	1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June?	BUY No	99¢	$550	18d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?	SELL No	100¢	$130	28d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY No	98¢	$1,601	30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	SELL No	100¢	$489	30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	SELL No	100¢	$1,007	33d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?	SELL No	100¢	$5	33d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?	SELL No	100¢	$138	33d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?	SELL No	100¢	$38	33d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?	BUY No	100¢	$210	35d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	SELL No	100¢	$218	35d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	BUY No	100¢	$490	42d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$480	42d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$480	48d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	SELL No	100¢	$465	48d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$2,022	51d
Will Solana reach $160 in April?	BUY No	99¢	$94	69d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?	BUY No	99¢	$100	69d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$217	69d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	SELL No	100¢	$408	69d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$2,039	76d
Bulls vs. Wizards	SELL Bulls	69¢	$1	76d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m	SELL No	99¢	$1,998	77d
Bulls vs. Wizards	BUY Bulls	83¢	$1	78d
Mavericks vs. Suns	BUY Suns	83¢	$1	78d
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets	BUY Nuggets	97¢	$1	78d
Bucks vs. Pistons	BUY Pistons	94¢	$1	78d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$100	84d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m	BUY No	99¢	$2,000	84d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,150.37 · official $2,150.37 (match) · 61 history records