Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6D 0x6ddd…1fc8 sports 288 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$259 (+1%) realized +$265 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%161W / 125L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$404est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$31
14 days−$502
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$473
other 6% +$515
crypto 2% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -2.1% -11.4% 62% 59% -6.2%
≤30d 114 -7.6% -16.4% 52% 49% -7.8%
≤90d 286 -8.6% -17.3% 56% 52% -9.6%
all 286 -8.6% -17.3% 56% 52% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 52% -9.6%
10% -25.2% 45% -18.2%
15% -32.4% 33% -26.1%
20% -39.1% 22% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$97 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$265
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses161 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$404
Open positions2
Markets (closed)286 / 288
History coverage63d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs TDK 69¢ 58¢ $49 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK - Map 1 Winner ex-RUBY 49¢ 54¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $49 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $14 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $40 +$9 +24%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $12 +$5 +43%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $28 +$23 +82%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $17 −$17 -99%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 20 $11 +$7 +60%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $41 −$41 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $13 +$8 +60%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $23 −$23 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $41 +$33 +80%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $41 +$13 +32%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 17 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $19 +$19 +101%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 17 $46 +$23 +49%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$6 +14%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $24 +$14 +59%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $32 +$22 +67%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $20 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +48%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $20 −$15 -76%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 +$13 +48%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $18 +$9 +50%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $28 +$20 +73%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $18 +$10 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $40 +$19 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $23 −$19 -83%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $30 −$29 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +70%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $40 −$10 -25%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $32 +$8 +26%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 11 $38 −$6 -17%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $46 −$30 -65%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 10 $19 +$12 +64%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $43 −$7 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $9 +$9 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 69¢ $50 20m
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 49¢ $21 21m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $71 24m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof SELL TDK 80¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 56¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY TDK 64¢ $40 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 38¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $52 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 54¢ $28 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 75¢ $17 29h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY Walczaki 62¢ $11 33h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY TDK 69¢ $41 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $23 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 61¢ $30 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $74 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $21 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $20 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $13 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 61¢ $20 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy 58¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.29 · official $66.44 · 628 history records