Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:21:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dde…24ec sports 86 markets active 8h ago coverage 15d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$639 (+3%) realized +$639 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%29W / 57L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Fees−$320est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$3,435
other 44% +$1,376
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +7.4% -2.8% 26% 22% -13.7%
≤30d 86 +27.3% +15.2% 34% 30% -7.4%
≤90d 86 +27.3% +15.2% 34% 30% -7.4%
all 86 +27.3% +15.2% 34% 30% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.2% 30% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here +4.2% 24% -16.3%
15% -5.9% 22% -24.4%
20% -15.1% 19% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +47% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$122 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$639
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses29 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$320
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage15d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 −$29 -199%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 −$40 -197%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $2,029 −$4,000 -197%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,008 +$124 +12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$20 -196%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $285 −$77 -27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$28 +272%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,410 −$117 -8%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $133 +$591 +445%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $786 −$67 -8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $487 −$128 -26%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $521 −$36 -7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 −$6 -194%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$20 -195%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$17 +162%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $11 +$12 +105%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $185 +$46 +25%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $104 +$9 +9%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $430 −$12 -3%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$49 -197%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 −$50 -197%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $713 +$134 +19%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $400 −$314 -78%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 $0 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$20 -195%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $13 −$1 -9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 -1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$1 -7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
IFK Mariehamn vs. IF Gnistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $19 −$5 -27%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$20 -196%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 −$10 -195%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,000 −$552 -55%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $647 +$343 +53%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $22 −$7 -30%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $489 −$179 -37%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 $0 -3%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $1 −$2 -174%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $5 −$10 -194%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $145 −$80 -55%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-07? Jun 11 $450 −$382 -85%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$19 -195%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 11 $10 −$20 -195%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $89 −$173 -196%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $20 −$11 -51%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $9 −$18 -196%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $5 8h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 8h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $5 10h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $5 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 72¢ $207 29h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 98¢ $285 29h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $2,029 30h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $19 31h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $19 31h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $10 31h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 4¢ $8 33h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL No 99¢ $625 33h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 10¢ $9 33h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL No 99¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL No 99¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL No 99¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL No 99¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL No 99¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL No 99¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL No 99¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL No 99¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL No 99¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL No 99¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 18¢ $133 33h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $160 34h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 10¢ $61 34h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $172 34h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 41¢ $168 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 516 history records