Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6D 0x6dde…b8f1 other 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 816d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,538 (-10%) realized −$3,330 · open −$208
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate45%63W / 77L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$646now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$185
7 days−$35
14 days−$35
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$1,356
politics 26% −$1,604
crypto 13% −$561
sports 13% −$204
world 7% +$801
economics 4% −$364
finance 4% −$281
tech 3% +$105
weather 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +31.1% +18.6% 47% 40% -11.3%
≤30d 17 +26.5% +14.5% 47% 41% -11.3%
≤90d 25 +2.1% -7.6% 44% 36% -27.1%
all 140 -9.6% -18.2% 45% 33% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 33% -18.0%
10% -26.0% 26% -25.9%
15% -33.1% 24% -33.0%
20% -39.7% 19% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$126 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

816d coverage
Net worth$646
Realized−$3,330
Unrealized−$208
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses63 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions5
Markets (closed)140 / 145
History coverage816d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 82¢ 98¢ $246 $293 +$47 (+19%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $171 $172 +$2 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $228 $114 −$114 (-50%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 60¢ 17¢ $179 $51 −$128 (-72%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 21¢ 11¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $74 −$73 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $113 −$112 -99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $149 −$147 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $55 +$125 +226%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $122 +$128 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $84 −$82 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $91 +$109 +119%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $86 +$264 +307%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $219 −$216 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $99 +$101 +101%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 +$144 +400%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Jun 14 $394 +$33 +8%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $164 −$161 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $253 −$82 -32%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $162 +$74 +46%
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5 May 02 $254 −$250 -98%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 28 $528 +$95 +18%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $562 +$45 +8%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $108 −$106 -98%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–2.75 in March? Apr 10 $189 −$189 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in March? Apr 08 $461 −$461 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in March? Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 24 $100 +$75 +75%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $387 +$186 +48%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? Mar 13 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 13? Mar 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? Mar 09 $550 +$833 +151%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 06 $453 +$390 +86%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 06 $663 −$278 -42%
Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 02 $108 +$92 +85%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 01 $64 +$24 +38%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $115 −$99 -86%
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Feb 23 $183 +$203 +111%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $174 +$148 +85%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Feb 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics Feb 22 $175 +$33 +19%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs England Feb 22 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Sri Lanka win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Feb 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Moody's (MCO) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Analog Devices (ADI) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Charles River Laboratories International (CRL) beat quarterly ear Feb 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Win Feb 17 $90 −$90 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs Italy (Game 1) Feb 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics Feb 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Germany win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympi Feb 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis Feb 09 $356 +$44 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $173 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $74 39h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $113 39h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $49 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $149 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $55 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $84 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $122 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $100 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $91 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $219 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $99 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $86 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $164 6d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 67¢ $147 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 67¢ $19 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 47¢ $253 21d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the SELL No 97¢ $158 27d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the SELL No 93¢ $79 33d
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $394 41d
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $254 49d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 49¢ $338 52d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 57¢ $285 61d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 44¢ $29 62d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 44¢ $222 62d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 44¢ $146 62d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 44¢ $128 62d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $646.41 · official $646.41 (match) · 649 history records