Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:50:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6de0…47c5 crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 505d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate84%41W / 8L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$2
tech 17% +$1
other 10% $0
politics 6% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 49 +0.2% -9.3% 84% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.31 per $1 lost it wins $8.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

505d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses41 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage505d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $61 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 02 $41 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $69 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Dec 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Oct 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Oct 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Sep 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? May 02 $9 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 02 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Apr 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $15 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 01 $21 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will Carlton Carrington win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 17 $18 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $420 - 425b on February 28? Mar 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 12 $36 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $76 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 28d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $61 29d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $34 61d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $33 62d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 90d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $30 91d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 99¢ $41 91d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $7 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 121d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? BUY No 100¢ $61 122d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 148d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 150d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $21 180d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $52 181d
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? BUY No 100¢ $18 210d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $55 210d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $16 242d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $43 242d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $11 273d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe BUY Yes 100¢ $14 273d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $46 273d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $19 301d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $47 302d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $13 333d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $17 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $44 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 365d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 395d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.47 · official $75.47 (match) · 107 history records