Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:54:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6D 0x6de6…d900 sports 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$874 (-1%) realized −$911 · open +$37
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate71%53W / 22L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,002per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days+$88
14 days+$168
30 days+$886
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% $0
crypto 28% −$26
sports 22% −$933
other 6% +$264
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +8.6% -1.8% 60% 40% -8.0%
≤30d 56 +23.1% +11.4% 73% 43% -7.0%
≤90d 68 +17.2% +6.0% 71% 35% -10.5%
all 75 +15.6% +4.6% 71% 32% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.6% 32% -10.3%
10% -5.4% 28% -18.9%
15% -14.6% 24% -26.7%
20% -23.0% 17% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$151 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$2,349
Realized−$911
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses53 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions7
Markets (closed)75 / 89
History coverage109d
Avg bet$1,002
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 88¢ $740 $885 +$145 (+20%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $770 $765 −$5 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 64¢ $300 $322 +$22 (+8%)
Will Florian Wirtz score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 59¢ $201 $177 −$24 (-12%)
Alex Baena: 1+ shots Yes 99¢ 50¢ $198 $100 −$98 (-49%)
Rodri: 1+ shots Yes 99¢ 99¢ $55 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Dani Olmo: 1+ shots Yes 99¢ 90¢ $48 $44 −$4 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-30? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Kai Havertz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $158 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$26 +127%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2,882 +$18 +1%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots AND Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots AND Julio César En Jun 20 $31 +$80 +262%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $227 +$9 +4%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $165 +$33 +20%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $43 −$23 -54%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $24 −$21 -88%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $146 +$2 +1%
Antoine Semenyo: 2+ shots AND Luis Díaz: 2+ shots AND Harry Kane: 2+ s Jun 18 $10 +$9 +85%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 3+ shots Jun 18 $10 +$12 +118%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $43 +$57 +133%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $57 +$25 +44%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $983 +$12 +1%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $170 +$30 +18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $42 +$156 +371%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $20 −$13 -65%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $96 +$109 +114%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $77 +$22 +29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $194 −$194 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $64 +$134 +209%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 06 $190 +$10 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5? Jun 06 $989 +$11 +1%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $557 −$41 -7%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $13,837 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $107 −$76 -71%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 Jun 04 $215 +$85 +40%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $59 +$33 +56%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $95 +$105 +110%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $151 +$149 +99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 31 $490 +$10 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? May 31 $80 +$4 +5%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $48 +$51 +106%
NBA: SGA Award Parlay May 31 $196 +$98 +50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5 May 31 $2 +$1 +35%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $106 +$26 +24%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5 May 31 $60 +$5 +8%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $52 +$48 +92%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $141 +$59 +41%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 29 $899 +$5 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 May 29 $97 +$3 +3%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 May 29 $75 +$24 +33%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $2,400 $0 +0%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 May 29 $9 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 28 $198 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rodri: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $55 1h
Dani Olmo: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $48 1h
Alex Baena: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $143 1h
Alex Baena: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $55 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 60¢ $304 2h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $746 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 48¢ $20 2h
Will Florian Wirtz score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 6h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 7h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $40 7h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 7h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 7h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $18 7h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 7h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $18 7h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 7h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 7h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $14 7h
Will Kai Havertz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 90¢ $157 9h
Will Kai Havertz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $158 17h
Will Florian Wirtz score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 18h
Will Florian Wirtz score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 21h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Indiana Fever 10¢ $10 23h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $14 23h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $349 23h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $38 23h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Indiana Fever 43¢ $0 23h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Indiana Fever 43¢ $8 23h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Indiana Fever 43¢ $8 23h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Indiana Fever 43¢ $25 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,348.68 · official $2,368.68 (match) · 440 history records