Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:26:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6de9…752a crypto 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$524 (-7%) realized −$345 · open −$179
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate66%100W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$184
14 days−$157
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$212
world 23% −$22
other 16% −$174
politics 8% −$34
tech 3% −$55
finance 2% +$7
sports 2% −$140
economics 1% +$10
culture 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -18.7% -26.5% 56% 44% -27.1%
≤30d 22 +0.5% -9.1% 59% 50% -14.6%
≤90d 151 -1.4% -10.7% 66% 42% -15.6%
all 151 -1.4% -10.7% 66% 42% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 42% -15.6%
10% -19.3% 30% -23.7%
15% -27.1% 19% -31.0%
20% -34.2% 5% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$26 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$1,484
Realized−$345
Unrealized−$179
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses100 / 51
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions21
Markets (closed)151 / 172
History coverage71d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 76¢ 84¢ $110 $121 +$11 (+10%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 68¢ 78¢ $91 $104 +$13 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $99 $87 −$12 (-12%)
Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $125 $86 −$39 (-31%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 57¢ 46¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $120 $77 −$43 (-36%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? Yes 57¢ 42¢ $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 60¢ 63¢ $41 $43 +$2 (+5%)
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? Yes 71¢ 82¢ $37 $43 +$6 (+17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 64¢ 46¢ $57 $41 −$16 (-29%)
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? Yes 11¢ $36 $15 −$22 (-60%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 33¢ 18¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-47%)
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? No 64¢ 65¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? Yes 26¢ $21 $3 −$18 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $100 −$70 -70%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $200 +$38 +19%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $22 +$8 +38%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 20 $100 +$49 +49%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $157 +$73 +47%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $148 −$85 -58%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $40 +$15 +38%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 14 $44 +$13 +30%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 10 $39 −$1 -2%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $120 +$6 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $56 +$24 +42%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $21 −$1 -7%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $21 −$2 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $70 −$3 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $109 +$21 +19%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 07 $45 +$11 +25%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $33 +$4 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $70 −$4 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $24 +$9 +36%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $40 −$40 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $63 +$11 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 24 $30 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $40 +$10 +25%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $36 +$17 +46%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $35 +$22 +64%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 21 $22 +$29 +134%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $20 $0 -0%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $33 +$10 +31%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? May 19 $20 $0 +2%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 17 $23 −$3 -12%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $56 −$27 -48%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $58 −$29 -50%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 14 $19 −$1 -3%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $20 −$1 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 14 $33 +$8 +24%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? May 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 13 $20 +$4 +19%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $21 −$13 -65%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 12 $21 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States A May 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 10 $20 −$8 -40%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 8? May 08 $44 +$6 +13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $35 +$9 +25%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7? May 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $30 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 24¢ $120 33h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 76¢ $110 33h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $101 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $30 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $100 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $100 2d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $21 3d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY No 76¢ $50 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $200 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $149 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $183 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No $8 3d
Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $22 3d
Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $79 3d
Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $100 4d
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? BUY No 64¢ $6 4d
Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 4d
Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 4d
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 57¢ $102 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 66¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,484.08 · official $1,481.57 (match) · 439 history records