Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:24:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6D 0x6deb…dd13 crypto 161 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$94 (-5%) realized −$95 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%87W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$43
14 days−$143
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$193
sports 24% +$33
other 3% +$24
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +6.3% -3.8% 59% 57% -6.2%
≤30d 157 +1.0% -8.6% 55% 54% -16.1%
≤90d 157 +1.0% -8.6% 55% 54% -16.1%
all 157 +1.0% -8.6% 55% 54% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 54% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 50% -24.1%
15% -25.4% 43% -31.5%
20% -32.7% 34% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses87 / 70
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)157 / 161
History coverage10d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 44¢ 44¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 55¢ 60¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $41 −$34 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $30 +$17 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $30 +$32 +105%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $10 +$16 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$5 +45%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +97%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$21 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +21%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $10 −$9 -84%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $20 +$18 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 3m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $25 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 9¢ $6 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 54¢ $20 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 55¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 10h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 63¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 13h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.28 · official $71.00 (match) · 345 history records