Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6df1…9713 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$110 (-46%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-52.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -47.6% -52.6% 27% 18% -55.3%
≤30d 11 -47.6% -52.6% 27% 18% -55.3%
≤90d 11 -47.6% -52.6% 27% 18% -55.3%
all 11 -47.6% -52.6% 27% 18% -55.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.6% 18% -55.3%
10% -57.2% 18% -59.5%
15% -61.3% 18% -63.5%
20% -65.1% 18% -67.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$2 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$17 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$7 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records